While the industry generally agreed that, 3G licenses will be issued in 2007 the possibility of very large, but further tests with the TD, the industry once again came a 3G license may further delay concerns.
UBS said the Chinese government in 2007 first quarter TD test extended to more cities, in the TD before maturity, the Chinese will not be issuing 3G licenses, China's telecom industry will not release 3G licenses in the case, the slow realization of TD commercial, licensing hours will be further delayed.
UBS said the Ministry of Information Industry will be promised to provide 3G services during the Games and can not be the main driver of 3G licensing, as TD test will be expanded to six Olympic Games cities in China policy can not condition the licensing of Under the promise, therefore, the licensing hours will be far later than expected, although the UBS forecast the time the Chinese government licensing will be the end of 2007, but the most likely time will be postponed.
If the Government issued licenses in the first quarter of 2007, it must have a premise that the TD will give priority to grant a license for 6 to 12 months time, because this approach does not meet the Ministry of Information Industry leaders such as Hong Kong Telecom's international commitments on several occasions, UBS believes that the first quarter of 2007, the licensing is unlikely.
TD's commitment to operators in question, UBS insisted that the TD will be shared several operators, China Mobile, the expansion of testing in the next step will dominate, but China Telecom and China Netcom will join, the purpose of this TD to further eliminate the risks to the enterprise and uncertainties.
In the restructuring plan, the UBS recognized JP Morgan raised before the restructuring plan, which is split China Unicom is still able to escape the fate, China Telecom will buy China Unicom's C network, China Netcom and China Unicom's G network merger.
UBS believes that China Unicom will benefit in the reorganization, therefore, UBS will be Unicom's target price increase from the 10.2 to 12.8 Hong Kong dollar HK, China Telecom and China Netcom, the Hong Kong dollar respectively, 3.3 and 15.8 by the Hong Kong dollar to 4 dollar and 20 dollar.
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